Case study · Surrey

Modelled · install underway

A new all-electric home, doing everything right, still paying £6,200 a year.

One obvious fix would have made the bill worse. The fix that worked had nothing to do with more solar. Here is the whole story in four numbers, then how we got there.

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Bill now / yr

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Modelled saving / yr

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Off the bill

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Year payback

A modelled, pre-install projection for this specific home, on its own load and tariff. Your home's numbers will be different.

The setup

Going all-electric was right. It just concentrated the whole bill on one expensive habit.

A brand new home, no gas.

Built 2024 to a high spec. Three air-source heat pumps (one for the pool), two e-boilers, an EV and a plug-in hybrid.

£6,200 a year, on Cosy.

Structural, not a mistake. Going fully electric puts the entire household on one volatile commodity.

The instinct: more solar.

A bigger array, more generation. But daytime solar can’t cover heat-pump-plus-pool winter load. The lever is elsewhere.

The instinct was more solar. The model found the lever somewhere else entirely.

What we modelled

One obvious move loses money. The other pays back in 4.5 years.

ConfigurationTariff switch onlyCosy → Intelligent Octopus GoRecommended · chosen install3× Battery modulesOn IGo · as procured
Battery0 kWh40.5 kWh
Install cost£0~£14,000
Annual saving−£1,000~16% more than today£3,21352% of current bill
PaybackN/A4.5 yrs

Where the saving comes from

The arbitrage

The battery isn't there to store solar. It's there to buy power at the right time of day.

29pwhat you pay per kWh by day
7pwhat it costs overnight on the right tariff
21pthe gap, captured on every kWh the battery shifts
£3,213across this household's shifted load, every year

The 10-year view

~£18,000 net by year 10, and that's the cautious read.

Payback

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Warranty

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Net, to year 10

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Why these numbers hold

Their data, not an average.

Modelled on this household’s own load profile, not a postcode estimate or a synthetic year.

Real, published tariffs.

Run against Octopus’s published 2026 tariffs, Cosy and Intelligent Octopus Go, not illustrative rates.

No stake in the answer.

We sell no hardware and take no installer commission. Nothing in our fee depends on what the model returns.

The fine print: sizing, tariff mechanics and the 10-year caveat
Tariff alone loses money

Switching from Cosy to Intelligent Octopus Go on its own costs this household roughly £1,000 a year more. Without a battery, IGo's higher peak rate outweighs the cheap overnight window for this load profile.

Sizing follows the tariff, not the roof

A single 13.5 kWh module does not pay back here. Three modules (40.5 kWh) are sized to the household's actual overnight-shiftable load, not to generation capacity.

Note on horizon

The 10-year figure is where the warranty ends, not the battery. Systems of this class commonly run 12 to 20 years; any saving past year 10 is unmodelled upside.

Savings are a pre-install projection, undiscounted and indicative; year-one metered figures follow once the system is live.

The takeaway

“New build, all-electric, £6,000-a-year bill. The fix wasn't solar. It was buying electricity at the right time of day.”

New Energy Education   modelling for a five-bed 2024 new-build, Surrey

Talk to us

Curious what the numbers look like for your home?

This was modelled for one specific home. Yours has its own load, tariff and roof, so the answer will be different. We work it out from your own data.